Perception is Everything
It’s been fourteen years since Jackie Fenn created the Gartner Hype Cycle for emerging technologies.
It charts the way that the media and the public perceive technology as it makes its way into our culture.
The development of Social Media has helped accelerate the speed at which the cycle operates. And paradoxically, increased the likelihood that a new technology will become obsolete before reaching the ‘Plateau of Productivity’.
The cycle starts with a technology trigger.
Pharma’s research work makes it a prime candidate to occupy that section of the cycle.
Behavioural Economics and Human Augmentation are two areas that Pharma should be vitally interested in.
Do you image they are?
If Pharma’s investor briefings are to be believed, then you’d expect to see Pharma featuring prominently around the Peak of Inflated Expectations.
That’s where the height of Hype reaches its zenith.
Inflated with the hot air of financial projections, the balloon rises majestically, carrying the promise of untold riches and wonderful returns on investment.
Until the balloon goes up, following which the balloon goes down.
Fast.
Down to the Trough of Disillusionment, where things get broken.
Things like the promises that were made at the Peak of Inflated Expectations.
Things like the expectation that Pharma would honour its stated purpose of working to improve health care.
And not put the profit motive quite so far ahead of concern for its customers.
Sloping Shoulders
Next follows the slope of enlightenment, where people figure out where the technology actually fits in, and the true value of its contribution.
It’s a nervous time for everyone, as some technologies turn out to be not a lot of value after all.
Those that do contribute have to get moving quickly, before they become obsolete or are overtaken by smarter cannibalisations. (Think of what Apple did to the i-pod, by introducing the i-phone.)
At the end of the Cycle, we reach the Plateau of Productivity.
This is a pretty boring place, where the technology hums quietly away, making money.
There’s not much to do, other than to look over the shoulder to see what new technologies are about to replace you.
The temptation is very strong to deny, ignore and dismiss these replacement technologies.
It must be strong, because the technologies of Social Media are threatening to make fundamental changes. And almost no existing businesses appear to be taking notice.
When you put it all together it looks a bit like this:
Keep looking over your shoulder.
(Tomorrow's Post: Blogs, Blawgs and Pharmablogs)
Comments